The property market is no longer moving with the same momentum it did in the years immediately after the pandemic.
Back then, low borrowing costs, limited supply and strong demand pushed both house prices and rents sharply higher. In 2026, the picture is more balanced. House prices are still edging up in some areas, but growth is patchy, affordability remains stretched and buyers are more price-sensitive. Halifax said UK house prices rose by 0.3% in February 2026 and were 1.3% higher than a year earlier, while Rightmove said the number of homes for sale is at an 11-year high for this point in the year.
That does not point to a market falling apart. It points to one that is calmer, more selective and more driven by affordability than momentum.
Property market
We are starting to see the weight of higher household costs, tighter affordability and rate volatility continue to shape behaviour.
Some homeowners are still holding back from moving unless the reason is needs-driven. Buyers are more cautious, and sellers need to be more realistic on price. That said, the market is not uniform. Areas where property values are lower relative to local incomes are generally proving more resilient, while more expensive markets remain more constrained.
The key change is that this is no longer a market where buyers can rely on rapidly improving mortgage pricing to do the heavy lifting. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but fixed mortgage pricing has become more volatile again because lenders price from swap rates and funding costs, not just base rate expectations.
Rental market
The rental market still tells a different story.
Supply has improved compared with the tightest points of the last few years, but it remains historically limited. Rightmove said the number of available homes to rent was 9% higher than a year earlier by the end of 2025, yet still a third lower than ten years ago. At the same time, competition has cooled from extreme levels but remains elevated, with an average of 10 enquiries per rental property across 2025, compared with six in 2019.
Rents are still rising, just not at the same pace as before. Rightmove said average advertised rents rose by 2.2% across 2025 and expects a further 2% rise in 2026. That is a slower pace than the sharp jumps seen in earlier years, but it still underlines the mismatch between available stock and underlying demand.
So while the sales market has become more price-sensitive, the rental market remains underpinned by a structural shortage of supply.
The geopolitical effect
The biggest change in recent weeks has not come from the UK housing market itself, but from global events feeding into inflation expectations and mortgage pricing.
Renewed conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, disrupted supply routes and unsettled financial markets. Reuters reported Brent crude rising above $100 a barrel on 17 March 2026 as markets reacted to renewed attacks and fears over supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. That matters for landlords and borrowers because rising energy prices can feed into inflation expectations, push up gilt yields and lift swap rates, which in turn raises the cost of fixed-rate mortgages.
We have already seen that effect in UK mortgage pricing. Reuters reported that average two-year fixed mortgage rates climbed to 4.84% in early March, with two-year swap rates jumping sharply as hopes of near-term rate cuts faded.
So while Bank Rate is lower than many expected it would be at this stage, mortgage rates are not moving in a straight line down. That is an important distinction.
What this means for landlords
For landlords, the market is more nuanced than it was a few years ago.
Higher borrowing costs, tighter affordability testing and ongoing policy uncertainty mean portfolio decisions require more planning. But at the same time, tenant demand remains firm, rental stock is still short and rents continue to edge higher.
That is why we have not seen the sort of wholesale landlord retreat some expected. Yes, some investors have sold. Yes, regulation and tax continue to weigh on sentiment. But many professional landlords are taking a longer-term view and focusing on portfolio quality, rental demand and cash flow rather than short-term noise.
In practice, that means stress-testing borrowing properly, reviewing whether each property still works on a refinance basis and being realistic about leverage.
Buy-to-let expectations for 2026
Mortgage rates are likely to remain unsettled for a while.
Much will depend on inflation, energy prices and whether global tensions ease. If markets stabilise, funding costs could improve again. If inflation risks rise, fixed rates may stay firmer for longer. Either way, this is not a market where landlords should assume rapid or dramatic falls in mortgage pricing from here.
That makes product choice more important.
For some landlords, a fixed rate will still offer welcome certainty. For others, shorter-term or variable options may look more competitive, though that comes with more exposure to rate movement. The right answer will depend on portfolio size, loan-to-value, cash flow and how much risk you are comfortable carrying.
There is also a strong case for reducing leverage where possible. Lower portfolio LTVs can improve product access, reduce monthly costs and create more flexibility if lender affordability tests tighten again.
Final thoughts
The buy-to-let market in 2026 is not without pressure, but nor is it lacking opportunity.
The sales market is more measured. Mortgage pricing is more volatile than many hoped. Global events are once again influencing inflation and lender behaviour. But rental demand remains strong, supply is still limited and well-structured portfolios continue to benefit from those fundamentals.
The investors likely to do best from here will be the ones who stay selective, manage leverage carefully and take a longer-term view rather than chasing short-term market moves.
One thing is still clear: even in a more complicated environment, the UK rental market remains resilient.
