A landmark in the money markets today
Posted on 14 January 2008 by
A landmark in the money markets was achieved today. For the first time since the start of the credit crunch over 5 months ago the 3 month Libor rate in one of the major currencies has fallen below the central bank reference rate. Today US 3 month Libor fell very sharply by 0.2% from 4.26% to 4.06%, a fall of 0.91% over the last month. The Fed Funds rate is 4.25%.
Today’s fall follows Friday’s speech by Ben S. Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman, in which he pledged “substantive additional action” to insure against “downside risks” to the US’s six-year economic expansion. This reinforced expectations for a 0.5% (rather than 0.25%) cut to 3.75% in the Fed Funds rate at the next Fed meeting on 30 January and the market is now also heavily betting on another cut at the following meeting in March.
Furthermore, the yield on 2 year US Treasuries has fallen to 2.56% and Goldman Sachs are now forecasting the Fed Funds rate will fall as low as 2.5%. After Goldman’s stellar performance in 2007 of not merely avoiding the sub prime problems but actually profiting from them by running a short position for most of the year it would be a brave investor who bets against them.
Goldman’s made public today a letter sent on 30/10/07 to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which included the following: “During most of 2007 we maintained a net short subprime position with the use of derivatives and therefore stood to benefit from declining prices in the mortgage market.''
More bad news from the US today came from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the US mortgage industry's largest trade group, which forecast that existing home sales will fall a further 13% in 2008, with new home sales expected to fall 15%.
Stricter lending criteria are making it harder for US borrowers to obtain mortgages, to an even greater extent than in the UK. Doug Duncan, the MBA’s chief economist, said “Banks are running up against capital limits as they write down the value of assets at the same time they are putting loans on their balance sheets because the markets for securitized products are essentially closed.”
Categories: Interest rates
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